Unmasking countries
The Corona virus proved to be an unpredicted and serious challenge for all countries worldwide which surfaced macroeconomic issues each country was already experiencing. Similar to when a patient has an existing disease and the Corona virus exposes and accelerates the rhythm of these terrible dysfunctionalities (diabetes, pneumonia), so do countries now battle with challenges mostly in the health and educational areas. Education now is delivered mostly only online in red risk named areas and health systems face immense pressure to manage huge numbers of patients arriving in hospitals with Corona symptoms. In these cases, one would argue what happens to citizens already suffering from pre-Covid-19 diseases since there is a high risk of insufficient capacity to heal them? Countries think alike. How will the emerging economies survive through this crisis since countries now have a full-time job accounting for their internal issues instead of reaching a hand to other economies in need? Is the funding capacity also full? Or more going the opposite direction? As hospitals recruit more personnel and investing in educating resources to supplement the scarcity in the medical sector, so do countries appeal to support from financial institutions or printing currency which aim to relaunch economies through inflation. How patients are transferred between countries as a last resort to be able to receive treatment, so inflation is imported, and financial support is gained with high interest and long term liability engagements.
In some red risk areas where hospitals are overcrowded, decision between life and death is made by doctors. Similar, as economies are mostly not running currently on normal demand and offer rules and more through steered principles supported by state governments, industries who fell or overcome this crisis are defined by tax, unemployment or social policies government promotes to support economic agents internally. Or support received from external sources also regulated by a council of well-off countries.
Economies worldwide tend to isolate themselves and Corona virus seems to make planning difficult and unpredictable in terms of external balance accounts. The future shows a big shift and to name a few examples: remote working might be the new key metrics, transports might need to reinvent themselves in a more greener way to become more efficient since demand is lowering, tourism might be limited to regions or countries in close proximity of people’s residence and production facilities might need to cater for the lower demands in goods as people are reluctant to increase spending for the moment. It is time to think things through, plan for more efficiency, automate and invest for the future when the re-balancing of the world economy will happen. Which country will emerge first, which economy will burst and which will go bust? Even if a vaccine might be a proper solution for the moment, this will not solve the imbalances happened during this period which will require long term solutions. This reorder happened in 2020 will allow for some space and resources to re-plan and achieve more than expected and for others to be more dependent on the rhythm imposed by leaders.
The digital era is here more than ever. Companies are becoming digital workplaces and people shifting their work habits from office based to home or remote base are facing individual challenges coping with the need to organize meetings and workshops at home. Virtual that is. Large companies cater for budgets granted to their own employees to ensure working conditions remote and compensate for the time not spent at the office. Budgets mostly spared from travel costs and renting renegotiated contracts. What happens thus with small companies which cannot afford these short-term shifts to digitalization? Apps subscriptions, internet connection, hardware infrastructure, cloud based all impact productivity in these times. And in some cases, these are simply just given, in others these are wishes hoping to come true one day. Working smarter, remotely, more efficient and cloud based using productivity apps which help the users navigate through virtual meeting rooms are the new market coefficients that describe the new normal. There is a shift from physical to intangible, from on prem to on cloud. As economies do not get digital, the countries and their citizens will no longer be able to sustain productivity levels which bring revenues in these challenging times. These facts are no longer nice to haves or signs of modernization, these are becoming must haves that counter the pandemic effects. For some countries this reality is still R&D, for others this is the past. One can now observe new gaps in global economies which are now getting not just more numerous, but more widened as well.
As a matter of fact, one can state that global shifts produce global winners and global users. Governments need to choose a side and plan ahead in terms of using and allocating resources at their best more than ever. Foresight and rationale as well as positive balances and savings will tell the difference between leader and follower.
The Corona virus is just making economies worldwide wear masks so that repercussions do not get distributed unequally.
